Bellcurve
Devnet
Research

Simulation results and assumptions

Explore the repository’s precomputed simulations for six stocks. Historical hourly bars are interpolated into one-minute paths, with configurable oracle delays and simulated order flow.

Backtest · 2.9 years of real hourly prices, minute-level replay

What liquidity providers lose to informed traders

Constant-product, 0.30% fee-53.6% ±0.2
Constant-product, 1.00% fee-61.0% ±0.3
Oracle pool, no market hours-165.8% ±23.2
Bellcurve-11.9% ±0.8
LPs lose vs holdingLPs gain

Same $100k pool, same price path, arbitrageurs who know the true price every minute. Bellcurve: -4.1%/yr vs -18.4%/yr for a 0.30% constant-product pool. Worst single weekend: 0.00% of the pool.

LP value minus buy-and-hold, % of starting capital
-154%+6%202420252026
Constant-product, 0.30% feeOracle pool, no market hoursBellcurve
With ordinary traders: what a trade costs vs the true price
PoolMarket openClosedLP / yr
Constant-product, 0.30% fee127 bps121 bps+14%
Constant-product, 1.00% fee177 bps173 bps+67%
Oracle pool, no market hours68 bps106 bps-29%
Bellcurve48 bps238 bps+103%

Closed-market trades cost more on Bellcurve on purpose: that is the price of real uncertainty, paid to the LPs who carry it.

Robustness: slower oracle, same informed traders
Oracle delay0.30% poolBellcurve
2 s-53.6%-11.9%
15 s-53.6%-39.7%
60 s-53.6%-61.7%

At a minute of oracle delay, Bellcurve loses its edge on the most volatile names in these simulations. These scenarios do not establish live oracle latency or future performance.

These are precomputed repository results, not a new independent backtest. At the baseline 2-second oracle delay, NVDA LP value relative to holding was -11.9% for Bellcurve and -53.6% for the 0.30% constant-product pool. TSLA was -1.9% versus +13.1%. With a 60-second delay in a separate one-seed NVDA run, Bellcurve fell to -61.7% versus -53.6%. Results depend on assumptions and do not establish live performance.

NVDA · every weekend since Oct 2023

The quote widens as the uncertainty does

-5%-2.5%0%+2.5%+5%0h12h24h36h48h60h72h84hhours since prices stopped printing (Friday 8pm New York)Monday pre-market2023-10-20: +0.02% after 56h2023-10-27: +0.38% after 56h2023-11-03: +0.18% after 57h2023-11-10: -0.49% after 57h2023-11-17: -0.15% after 57h2023-11-22: -1.12% after 33h2023-11-24: -0.78% after 59h2023-12-01: -0.34% after 57h2023-12-08: -0.13% after 57h2023-12-15: +0.48% after 57h2023-12-22: -0.01% after 81h2023-12-29: +0.15% after 81h2024-01-05: -0.17% after 57h2024-01-12: -0.54% after 81h2024-01-19: +1.04% after 57h2024-01-26: +0.75% after 57h2024-02-02: +0.40% after 57h2024-02-09: +0.39% after 57h2024-02-16: +0.10% after 81h2024-02-23: +1.08% after 57h2024-03-01: +1.14% after 57h2024-03-08: -0.65% after 56h2024-03-15: +1.55% after 56h2024-03-22: +0.63% after 56h2024-03-28: +1.21% after 80h2024-04-05: -0.05% after 56h2024-04-12: +1.26% after 56h2024-04-19: +2.13% after 56h2024-04-26: +0.60% after 56h2024-05-03: +0.22% after 56h2024-05-10: +0.44% after 56h2024-05-17: +0.81% after 56h2024-05-24: +2.45% after 80h2024-05-31: +1.64% after 56h2024-06-07: +0.07% after 56h2024-06-14: +1.14% after 56h2024-06-18: +2.27% after 32h2024-06-21: +0.01% after 56h2024-06-28: +0.22% after 56h2024-07-03: +0.81% after 35h2024-07-05: +0.21% after 56h2024-07-12: +0.26% after 56h2024-07-19: +1.15% after 56h2024-07-26: +0.26% after 56h2024-08-02: -6.84% after 56h2024-08-09: +0.71% after 56h2024-08-16: +0.20% after 56h2024-08-23: +0.42% after 56h2024-08-30: +0.02% after 80h2024-09-06: +1.55% after 56h2024-09-13: +0.19% after 56h2024-09-20: +0.22% after 56h2024-09-27: +0.05% after 56h2024-10-04: -0.23% after 56h2024-10-11: +0.57% after 56h2024-10-18: +0.22% after 56h2024-10-25: +1.02% after 56h2024-11-01: -0.00% after 57h2024-11-08: +0.72% after 57h2024-11-15: +0.63% after 57h2024-11-22: +0.85% after 57h2024-11-27: +1.57% after 33h2024-11-29: -0.11% after 59h2024-12-06: +0.06% after 57h2024-12-13: +0.19% after 57h2024-12-20: +0.70% after 57h2024-12-24: +0.45% after 35h2024-12-27: -0.42% after 57h2024-12-31: +0.38% after 33h2025-01-03: +0.61% after 57h2025-01-08: -0.78% after 33h2025-01-10: -1.93% after 57h2025-01-17: +0.68% after 81h2025-01-24: -6.46% after 57h2025-01-31: -1.71% after 57h2025-02-07: +0.85% after 57h2025-02-14: +1.02% after 81h2025-02-21: +0.74% after 57h2025-02-28: -0.18% after 57h2025-03-07: -1.97% after 57h2025-03-14: -0.36% after 56h2025-03-21: +1.24% after 56h2025-03-28: -1.99% after 56h2025-04-04: -6.02% after 56h2025-04-11: +3.62% after 56h2025-04-17: -1.25% after 80h2025-04-25: -0.89% after 56h2025-05-02: -0.28% after 56h2025-05-09: +3.10% after 56h2025-05-16: +0.17% after 56h2025-05-23: +2.93% after 80h2025-05-30: -0.73% after 56h2025-06-06: +0.25% after 56h2025-06-13: +0.65% after 56h2025-06-18: -0.07% after 32h2025-06-20: -0.32% after 56h2025-06-27: +0.89% after 56h2025-07-03: -0.43% after 83h2025-07-11: -0.01% after 56h2025-07-18: +0.30% after 56h2025-07-25: +0.68% after 56h2025-08-01: +1.30% after 56h2025-08-08: -0.24% after 56h2025-08-15: +0.20% after 56h2025-08-22: +0.14% after 56h2025-08-29: -0.73% after 80h2025-09-05: +0.45% after 56h2025-09-12: -0.03% after 56h2025-09-19: -0.18% after 56h2025-09-26: +0.76% after 56h2025-10-03: +0.18% after 56h2025-10-10: +2.51% after 56h2025-10-17: +0.51% after 56h2025-10-24: +1.77% after 56h2025-10-31: +0.67% after 57h2025-11-07: +1.88% after 57h2025-11-14: +0.74% after 57h2025-11-21: +0.63% after 57h2025-11-26: +0.34% after 33h2025-11-28: -0.58% after 59h2025-12-05: +0.12% after 57h2025-12-12: +0.77% after 57h2025-12-19: +0.68% after 57h2025-12-24: +1.14% after 35h2025-12-26: -0.92% after 57h2025-12-31: +1.45% after 33h2026-01-02: +0.52% after 57h2026-01-09: -1.17% after 57h2026-01-16: -2.63% after 81h2026-01-23: -0.08% after 57h2026-01-30: -1.17% after 57h2026-02-06: -0.18% after 57h2026-02-13: -0.57% after 81h2026-02-20: -0.43% after 57h2026-02-27: -1.73% after 57h2026-03-06: -1.34% after 56h2026-03-13: +0.96% after 56h2026-03-20: -2.64% after 56h2026-03-27: +0.71% after 56h2026-04-02: +0.72% after 80h2026-04-10: -1.18% after 56h2026-04-17: -0.91% after 57h2026-04-24: +0.20% after 56h2026-05-01: +0.82% after 56h2026-05-08: -0.07% after 56h2026-05-15: +0.37% after 56h2026-05-22: +1.33% after 80h2026-05-29: +1.54% after 56h2026-06-05: +1.48% after 56h2026-06-12: +2.22% after 56h2026-06-18: -0.18% after 80h2026-06-26: +1.13% after 56h2026-07-02: +0.33% after 80h2026-07-10: -1.35% after 56h2026-07-17: +0.31% after 56h2026-07-24: +0.92% after 56h2026-07-31: +1.53% after 56h2026-08-07: +0.49% after 56h2026-08-14: +0.48% after 56h2026-08-21: -0.09% after 56h2026-08-28: +0.51% after 56h2026-09-04: +0.65% after 80h2026-09-11: -1.98% after 56h

97% of 163 weekends and holidays reopened inside Bellcurve's quote (±1.5σ√t).

71% moved more than a 0.30% fee. Historical price moves do not establish an executable or risk-free trading opportunity.

Red dots are gaps beyond the quote; there the closed-market curve and the price band limit the damage.

Live from Nasdaq's trading-halt feed

How market halts affect the prototype

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Method: hourly SPY, QQQ, NVDA, TSLA, AAPL and MSTR bars (regular and extended hours) replayed at one-minute resolution with Brownian-bridge paths between prints; while the market is closed the path bridges to the next open, so informed traders learn the gap gradually. Arbitrageurs trade every mispriced pool as far as it pays; uninformed orders are identical across pools. 3 seeds; 2s oracle delay unless noted. Simulated, not a promise of future returns.